Monday, October 19, 2015

Seven problems that deserve investors’ attention

By Henry K. Hebeler  |  MarketWatch  |  August 4, 2015

Charles Krauthammer has written an excellent book titled "Things that matter." I agree with most of his points except the one on the “F word.” That said, perhaps he or someone should follow up with an equally popular book called "Things that shouldmatter." Here are suggestions for the table of contents:
The national debt. It's well over $18 trillion, and that's only the current value and growing exponentially. The Congressional Budget Office has calculated the present value of our unfunded obligations — such as commitments to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, CHIP, government pensions, etc. — total somewhere between $47 trillion and $205 trillion. These are patiently waiting their turn to show up in the national debt.
State debts. States, like the Federal Government, have built in their own laws and commitments for the future which they cannot fund. Never mind that this will be a problem for future elected officials. State and local commitments for pensions are way out of line. It takes an eternal optimist to buy the bonds of Illinois or Chicago. States, unlike the federal government can't print money to make the payments.
Funding the interest on debt. Debt interest is now about one-seventh of the total U.S. budget and will grow as the national debt and/or interest rate grows. Federal Reserve funds are far too little if Russia or China would elect to cash in their U.S. debt holdings. The Federal Reserve and banks have reserves to cope with a modest run on the banks, but a wholesale call for cash on the national debt would be a serious security issue.
Personal debt. The average household has over $15,000 in credit card debt and a $150,000 mortgage. Graduating college kids have accumulated over $1 trillion student debts, and even bankruptcy won't erase these. Borrowing on employer savings bonds has increased to the point where more money is being withdrawn than deposited. Over a quarter of 401(k)s have loans against them. And the government is encouraging even more debt by maintaining virtually zero interest rates on its bonds, making it easier to get reverse mortgages, and encouraging people to spend more, not save. Meanwhile, industry and commerce cheers for even more spending.
The national savings rate. Less than half of those working for employers with a 401(k) contribute to the plans — even though they offer free matching funds. We've come from saving 25% of disposable income (gross income less federal income tax) in World War II when taxes already took a big bite down to a more or less steady rate of 9% to 10% for decades until industry started to abandon pensions for its employees. Then people decided that they'd rather spend money on computers, cell phones, tablets, etc., and their ever increasing monthly cable costs while the government increased regulations on products and utilities that made them cost more. So by 2005, personal savings virtually disappeared and have now grown to the grand sum of 5% — when personal savings should be about 10% for those who will get pensions or 15% for those without then. Again the government, industry and commerce applaud.
We're not able to support our aged. The birthrate to support a steady population is 2.1 babies per woman. We've been below that now for decades with the result that we're well on our way to have 25% of the population over 60 — and they will vote for continued and increased welfare at the expense of the ever-diminishing supply of workers whose income taxes and FICA support much of this. When Social Security started, there were over 30 workers per Social Security recipient. Now it's down to about three workers. Demographers say we'll soon be down to two workers per beneficiary, the majority of which are living longer, requiring additional Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, etc. Already 52% of those over 55 have no savings. And sometime between 2020 and 2025, there will be more retired people than those working.
Invention of more laws. This is unending and ever increasing as we lay more regulations on both the public and private sectors. Of course, what can we expect when there are thousands of staffers supporting our 535 representatives and senators who are just itching to make their mark but unable to have the time to read what the others are putting into law. When I was young, the IRS regularly mailed us a copy of the IRS instructions along with the tax forms. Now they don't because there are about 120 forms alone in the instructions. The entire tax code was about 200 pages then. Now it's about 17,000 pages and requires experts to interpret and the Supreme Court to decide what the convoluted sentences mean.
So someone get busy writing "Things that should matter." And maybe we'll find some politicians that will think about the future beyond the next election cycle. If we don't, we are going to have most elderly in poverty and the remaining working people paying much higher taxes.

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